He is, these days, a successful lawyer and the squire of Westbury Manor, where he regularly meets with friends and associates for a quick meal and perhaps a hand or two of cards in an otherwise unused room upstairs.

Fifteen years removed from his days as chairman of the Nassau County Republican Committee, Joseph Margiotta is also now a major fund-raiser for the Republican Party in Suffolk County.

But it was for his acumen as an armchair political spectator that Margiotta was turned to last week as one reporter attempted to sort out all the political comings and goings - and potential goings, that are serving as the pre-quel to campaign '98.

"I don't know that you can call what I say any kind of keen insight," a friendly and relaxed Margiotta said from his office at the Uniondale law firm of Margiotta and Ricigliano. "All I can do is offer you my opinion."

First among the reporter's questions was whether Margiotta sees a place for County Executive Thomas S. Gulotta on the statewide ticket. For several weeks, pundits and political insiders alike have speculated ad nauseam about whether the county executive, who received 67 percent of the vote in last November's election, will be chosen by the governor to be his running mate this year.

Margiotta, who himself served as Republican Party Chairman in Nassau for 15 years, said he believes a Gulotta run for Lieutenant Governor is unlikely for several reasons.

"I don't know what the powers that be will do, but it seems that there are a number of considerations that weigh against Gulotta getting the nod this year.

"First of all, there's the matter of ethnicity. I mean, do you want to add another Italian to a ticket that already has [Senator Alfonse] D'Amato, [Attorney General Dennis] Vacco, and [Governor George] Pataki, who is half Italian, on it?

"And you already have Al D'Amato as an Italian running out of Nassau County, so, in my view, it would be too much.

"Then, because Betsy McCaughey Ross has been jettisoned from the ticket, there's the common perception that you need a woman on there somewhere.

"Now, let's take this a step further," Margiotta said. "You have to recognize that Nassau and Suffolk are key counties in Governor Pataki's re-election strategy."

The former chairman, of course, was making reference to the fact that Long Island's 112,163 votes were a significant part of the governors 196,259 vote margin of victory. And much of that margin came not from Nassau, but from Suffolk County.

"For a repeat, you have to ensure that Nassau and Suffolk come out to vote for you this time. With D'Amato running out of Nassau, it seems only logical that the governor would turn to someone from Suffolk.

"Against that backdrop, taking into consideration the other factors we've discussed, I think if you were the governor, you'd have to seriously be looking at someone like Bernadette Castro, who side steps the ethnicity issue on the basis of her being a woman."

Given the scenario he staked out, Margiotta was asked about statements made by Senator D'Amato at the recent inauguration of the county legislature, in which he seemed to be promoting that body's presiding officer, Bruce Blakeman for a position on the state ticket.

D'Amato, described Blakeman, repeatedly, "as the future of the party."

"I can understand people thinking highly of Bruce - he's a very bright young man. But I think you also have to consider a lot of that grows out of the great respect many feel for the Blakeman family. Bruce's father, Robert, was an outstanding assemblyman."

Though Blakeman is seen as a tremendous long shot for inclusion on the state ticket, some continue to bandy his name about as a possible candidate against Congresswoman Carolyn McCarthy " something that would fly in the face of former Congressman Dan Frisa's much ballyhooed comeback bid.

Mention of Frisa elicited a succinct remark from Margiotta. "Unless he has the support of the County Chairman, [his candidacy] is a dead issue."

Rumors also abound of late about a possible thawing in the relationship between Margiotta and his successor, Joseph N. Mondello. Though both Mondello and his spokesman were in California this week for a meeting of the Republican National Committee and could not be reached for comment, Margiotta said the rumor was unfounded.

"We haven't talked," he said. "I will tell you this, though, I was very pleased by the great victory the party enjoyed this past November. I am a committed Republican and want nothing but success for the party on the county and the state level."

Because of his close relationship to the Suffolk County Republican Committee and particularly its chairman, John Powell, of Brookhaven, Margiotta was asked to contrast the two county organizations.

"What you don't have in Suffolk is the tradition of discipline and support that we've had in Nassau since the days of J. Russell Sprague," Margiotta said.

"I mean, look at recent develops regarding the Suffolk legislature, where three Republicans were joined by the Democrats to elect a presiding officer.

"That puts John Powell in a tough spot, shows that the Suffolk organization isn't as strong as the Nassau organization, and stems from the differing political realities in the two counties.

"The way Nassau is set up, we have three townships and the political power comes from the town of Hempstead. So if you are the Republican leader of the town and the chairman, as Joe Mondello is, you have the control you need to promote your position and agenda.

"In Suffolk, it's different. It's a lot more diluted. No town has all the power, so you have to put together coalitions to advance your cause.

"Now, I don't know what's going to happen there, but if I were chairman in Suffolk, I would take [the turncoat Republicans] on. You can't have members of your party getting in bed with the Democrats. If you let this slide, then there is no party loyalty and no organization. If people keep punching you and you don't punch back, then you are nothing more than a punching bag.

"My money's on John Powell though. He's a very bright individual. The thing about John is, he's a sensitive man. He doesn't want to do things to the detriment of other people, and that's made some miscalculate him and think he's weak.

"I'll tell you this, John Powell is not weak and I think the three defections have only strengthened the unity of the other eight Republicans on the Suffolk legislature."

But what, the former chairman was asked, is a political leader to do? After all, Steve Hackling, the Republican who engineered the deal that led to his being named presiding officer, was just re-elected and won't stand for re-election for another two years.

"One of the great realities of politics is that nobody wants to fight for their nomination. I don't care whether you are an elected official or not. It doesn't matter how strong you are. Nobody likes that fight."

Before the conclusion of the interview, Margiotta was asked about this year's senate race, a race which after September will likely pit Republican D'Amato against Democrat Geraldine Ferraro.

"It reminds me of a race that was probably long before your time," Margiotta said. "Arthur Goldberg and Frank O'Connor had announced their intention to run against incumbent Nelson Rockefeller, and all the soothsayers were counting Rockefeller out.

"'Rocky was finished' they all said, and yet when the election rolled around, he devoured them both. That's why I say you can't count Al D'Amato out. He's a terrific campaigner, a tough campaigner, so you have to see how the situation plays out.

"The truth is, she's never been in the kind of campaign that's likely to be developed, so we don't know how she'll react. My money is on D'Amato."