History clearly displays that fractures have existed in the Republican Party since the early 1900s. The trumpeting of today is not new. But, the media continues, understandably, to hype the decisions of today. From Donald Trump's fantasy flirtation over accepting the Reform Party's nomination to Senator Bob Smith's resignation from the Republican Party, the turmoil has only just started. And those events may pale in comparison to the future decisions by Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes.

Today's fractures of the Republican Party are actually quite mild in terms of what happened in 1912. In that year, Long Island's Teddy Roosevelt, after having served as president for over seven years, staged a comeback as the presidential candidate of the Bull Moose Party. In the election of 1912, Roosevelt took on his former friend and incumbent president, William Howard Taft. Taft would not step aside. As a result, Woodrow Wilson defeated both Roosevelt and Taft. In fact, Roosevelt gained more votes on the Bull Moose line than Taft did on the Republican line.

Next, some may recall, came the fierce split in the party back in 1952. Dwight David Eisenhower was strongly opposed by Robert Taft for the Republican Presidential nomination. Third party action was avoided and Eisenhower went on to win the 1952 election in a landslide.

As the 1964 election approached, the division was even greater. New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller and Governor Scranton of Pennsylvania were fierce competitors of Barry Goldwater. With Scranton and Rockefeller, the representatives of the moderate wing of the Republican Party sitting on the sidelines, Senator Goldwater, the voice of conservatism, was overwhelmed by President Lyndon Johnson. One legacy of the Goldwater candidacy was his paving the way for the Reagan era. Yet, with all of the stridency of that 1964 campaign, no third party really developed.

That leads directly to the challenge faced by President George Bush over the candidacy of Ross Perot. There is little doubt in my mind that George Bush lost a second term because of Perot's candidacy and the unprecedented bitterness of Pat Buchanan's primary attacks on incumbent President George Bush. As a result, Bill Clinton defeated Bush with less then 50 percent of the popular vote.

What will 2000 bring? The fracturing continues with Senator Bob Smith's defection. But, if that is the worst case for the Republicans next year, it will not be much to worry about. Of greater concern will be the demands of Pat Buchanan. If his stridency continues, the Texas Governor, George W. Bush, will face a test similar to his father in 1992. Only time will tell whether sane leaders will prevail in the Republican Party.