Written by Phil Guarnieri Friday, 22 March 2013 00:00
There is, I confess, a kind of perverse pride at work when I consider that my predictions about Obama’s economic policies have been borne out: an environment of minimal growth, alarming indebtedness, higher taxes and steep and protracted unemployment. Still, I would rather be a jovial myopic than a dismal prophet.
But this is not an exercise to flatter my vanity or celebrate my prescience, I can regale you chapter and verse on where I’ve gone awry in the past. Instead I choose to focus on what I got wrong on a subject in which I got nearly everything right. In a word it’s inflation. It’s almost non-existent and in an economy flushed with cash, courtesy of the U.S. Treasury Department, there should be too many dollars chasing too few goods. The effect of such an imbalance is inflation. But we’ve had very little of that and that’s a good thing since inflation is theft; it steals value from people’s savings and savings is a symptom of a healthy economy.
So what gives; have we been hoodwinked by the mysterious workings of the Federal Reserve Board chaired by one Ben Bernanke? What happened was that after several years of virtually zero interest rates and the economy moving forward like a tortoise with severe leg cramps, the Federal Reserve put the economy on steroids via quantitative easing. This delicate operation increases the money supply by having the central bank purchase bonds or assets from the government. This extra cash is supposed to stimulate spending that will grow the economy. But this old bit of Keynesian theorizing fell flat on its flat face, since every study showed that both consumers and corporations continue to hoard cash. Uncertainty is one of the great restraining forces of the Universe and our economy is up to the gills with uncertainty.
In its centennial year the Federal Reserve implacably defies the purpose of its creation, which was to be an independent regulator of the money supply among other things. Instead, it behaves like chattel in thrall of its master: Congress and its profligate ways. How else to explain the Fed covering Congressional deficits of more than a trillion a year with worthless paper? These measures, however, delay the inevitable. Financial policy is abstract and complex, but the laws of supply and demand are a force of nature and, much like gravity, it’s bound to have its way no matter what artificial controls the Fed applies. Because of such rude intrusions one begins to understand why Ron Paul and other libertarians want to audit the Fed if not dismantle the Leviathan.
I would not push the envelope so far since the Federal Reserve, like the deservingly maligned United Nations, has its uses, though one has to scratch his head some before discerning what they are. There was a time when the informed, like the suavely persuasive Walter Heller, one of President Kennedy’s principal economic advisors, could argue that the Federal Reserve served a purpose in reacting to external events: A jump in OPEC prices, a surge in consumer spending, the overreacting of capitalism’s animal spirits. It is therefore sensible to have someone at the command post of fiscal and monetary policy to change course and make adjustments. This was a questionable practice even when Heller was around, but now we have the Fed reacting not so much to external events as internal ones in the form of massive government expenditures.
The Federal Reserve reminds me of what the long time New York Times editorialist James Reston said about Richard Nixon: He inherited some good instincts from his Quaker forebears but by diligent, hard work overcame them. So it is with the Fed as they labor to manage an economy that naturally defies being managed. Just as government policy has an abysmal record with wage and price controls, it’s certain that it will do no better at fixing the rate of inflation and interest rates. My suspicion is, and I believe it’s an informed suspicion, that as soon as there is a bona fide recovery both interest rates and inflation, unless thwarted by a change of heart in the Oval Office, will find their launching pad.
Meanwhile, the démarche of the Fed is to keep buying long-term bonds in an effort to temporarily drive down long-term interest rates. For now the lion’s share of this money is going into stocks, since bonds, money markets and savings accounts yield no revenue. The brush dips into the colors of a dark palette; for while the Federal Reserve generally acted properly in being a lender of the last resort during the 2008 economic meltdown, it caused the Great Depression, not acting decisively enough and by then protracted that god-awful calamity by letting the money contract by one-third in the 1930s. There are other examples including the very recent dot com bubble of 1999-2000, but time and space forbids analysis.
There are unhappy parallels between today’s recovery and that recovery of the 1930s. In short, there was no recovery. During the ’30s, there was more than a doubling of government spending, the imposition of higher taxes, the National Recovery Act and the Wagner Act all increased the cost of doing business and arrested job creation. With the exception of tariffs that were imposed on 20,000 durable goods during that Depression decade it all seems eerily related to today’s deplorable state of affairs. The world still trusts our dollar and that is also helping to keep things afloat but by no means swimmingly. We are more or less treading water.
Twelve years after the crash of 1929, America was still plagued with 14 percent unemployment. It was only after the war when savings were high, the debt liquidated and taxes cut that the corner was turned. It was a recovery waiting for a work force and it got it with millions of soldiers coming home. While income taxes rose dramatically in the 1950s (though no one in the highest brackets actually paid those rates) there were no deficits since Eisenhower was an uncompromising deficit hawk and no competition from a world still digging itself out from the ruins of war.
To believe after all this stimulus spending that the road to economic recovery is by more spending would be bizarrely jejune if the enervating effects of the economy were not so punishing. Every longitudinal study across the globe shows repeatedly that the best way to balance the budget and achieve economic sustenance is to cut spending and not raise taxes. The Obama Administration speaks eloquently about helping the poor, but all its doing is widening the safety net until it becomes unaffordable and unsustainable. If inflation is ever released from its imaginary cage, we will receive our just desserts, which I’m afraid will not be recovery but retribution.
Saturday, 27 September 2014 00:00
As I tried to make my way through the unforgiving monsoon season, rain pouring as far as the eye could see, dodging puddles I rushed inside the school building. The guard yelled in the background for the children to come in quickly before they dragged in even more mud inside. Trying hard not to slip on the wet dirty floor, I pondered to myself what
exactly I was doing here. The words of Mahatma Gandhi resonated inside my head, “The best way to find yourself is to lose yourself in the service of others.”
Here I was at a school in Mumbai India, 7800 miles from my home in Mineola, volunteering with “Aseema,” a non-governmental organization whose mission is to empower and educate the under privileged children. Children living on the streets or in slums and in inhuman conditions.
Friday, 26 September 2014 00:00
East Williston resident Brian Advocate-Ross addressed the Village of East Williston Board of Trustees earlier this month about an alleged drug problem at 386 Roslyn Rd. Advocate-Ross lives next to the house, and alleged to the village that there is “abundant drug use going on there—they’ve got people coming and going all day long, parking all over the place, and I have a little museum of drug paraphernalia that they throw over the fence.”
Advocate-Ross, who said a school two blocks away from the house, is primarily concerned about the safety of his four young children, and said he has called the police at the Third Precinct numerous times and expressed disappointment.
“I’m tired of calling them, they do nothing,” Advocate-Ross said. “My 6-year-old is finding what they throw over the fence and bringing them to me. I’m not going to tolerate it.”
The Third Precinct declined to comment.
Thursday, 25 September 2014 00:00
The Mineola Mustangs varsity football team defeated the Roosevelt Roughriders 47-38 on Saturday, Sept. 20.
Senior quarterback James Gerstner led the Mustangs (2-0) to victory by rushing 212 yards and securing five touchdowns on 23 carries. He also completed 11 of 13 passes for 229 yards and one touchdown.
“This was a big game—we were ready and pumped up all week,” Gerstner said. “We came in ranked third but we knew we could beat them.”
Thursday, 25 September 2014 00:00
The Mineola Varsity Football team’s defense dominated Valley Stream South, winning 21-0 on Sept. 13. The Falcons never got further then Mineola’s 30 yard line. The defense was lead by senior linebackers Eric Guardado (8 tackles 6 assist), Ed Hincapie (6 tackles, 5 assist) and safety John Clancy (tackles, 3 assist).
Defensive linemen Anthony Sarno, Luigi Athan, Victor Tineo, Matt Lafaye and Chris Brenes controlled the line of scrimmage. Defensive backs Peter McCormack and Chris Lockwood played very well as they combined for eight tackles and only allowed two pass completions. Linebacker Kyle Dunleavy, Ben Carbone, Matt Kosowski and Brian Smith also played very well.