With Teddy Roosevelt swinging a big stick and not speaking too softly, the United States brought about the creation of Panama and caused the construction of the Panama Canal shortly after the turn of this century. It was a defining period as the United States turned its back on isolation and became a world player. The canal was completed in 1914 and has operated flawlessly ever since.

But, the future for the canal is less certain than its conspiratorial beginnings. After a period of nationalistic unrest in Panama during the 1950s and 1960s, President Jimmy Carter entered into a 1977 Treaty with Panamanian Dictator Omar Torrijos calling for the transfer of the canal to Panama at the end of 1999 -- just one year from now.

While transition plans at the U.S. controlled Panama Canal Commission are progressing satisfactorily world shipping interests see flashing caution lights ahead. Panamanians do have the capability to operate the canal. In fact over 90 percent of the work force at the canal is now Panamanian along with over 50 percent of management. The concern flows from several questions. First, maritime companies are uncertain about whether the Panamanian politicians will leave canal management alone and not interfere with operations. To the credit of the United States, the canal has always been run without political interference.

The second question relates to rates and the use of canal profits. The United States has always had standard rates with no exceptions. Even before the turnover, there have been rumblings in Panama about rate adjustments. While the Carter-Torrijos Treaty prohibits discriminatory rates, recent statements out of Panama about the rates to be charged for different commodities, after 1999, make shippers nervous.

Will toll revenues end up paying for social improvements in Panama? Now, no one would deny that Panama needs a great deal of infrastructure assistance. From schools to roads and from health care to housing, Panama has the need for additional funds. Paying for those needs, some fear, will necessitate unreasonable toll increases. Both, Ernesto Perez Ballederes, the president of Panama and Jorge Ritter, the head of Panama's Canal Authority, have recently talked about taking canal profits and using them to support educational needs in Panama. The challenge is that there are no profits. The windfall expected by Panama from the cessation of certain fringe benefit payments after the transfer have already been committed to canal maintenance and improvement efforts.

With 70 percent of the 14,000 ships transiting the canal each year engaged in U.S. trade, America needs to be concerned about the future of the canal. To bring it closer to home, one out of every four ships entering or leaving New York harbor transits the Panama Canal. That translates into 60,000 jobs dependent on the canal in the New York metropolitan area.

All eyes will be focused on Panama later this year. Let us hope that the Panamanians will be able to live up to the trust implicit in the final execution of the Carter-Torrijos Treaty.