Novelist Tom Clancy once said the difference between fact and fiction is that fiction has to make sense.
In a remarkable turn of events, Governor David Paterson is now the chief executive of a government which spends more than $120 billion a year, and has 19 million shareholders, the residents of New York. I'm not going to focus on the unpleasantness that preceded the lieutenant governor's ascension to the top job. Instead, I'll highlight three things to look for in the coming weeks: the personnel changes occurring on the second floor of Albany's Capitol building, whether state agency heads remain in office, and the early positioning for this year's state legislative races.
The Capitol Building's second floor is the nerve center of state government. Having been the head of communications at both the state Banking and Insurance departments during the Pataki administration, I can tell you it is the home office not only for the governor but also his top media, legal and policy advisors. Governor Paterson will want to appoint his own people to these second-floor positions so you'll probably see a quick departure of the former governor's inner circle. But didn't then-state Senator Paterson run in 2006 with then-attorney general Spitzer and therefore owes an allegiance to his immediate predecessor's team? Yes, they ran on the same ticket. No, Governor Paterson doesn't want to surround himself with the former governor's brain trust, although a few of them may stay on for awhile in the name of continuity.
The situation is different for the dozens of Spitzer appointees who head up state agencies. Governor Paterson will need them to remain through year-end 2008, and perhaps longer. The proposed state budget for 2008-2009 is being considered right now by the state Legislature, a pivotal time of year. Moreover, that budget plan was developed with substantial input from the gubernatorial appointees who have managed each state agency's day-to-day activities since early 2007. The other reason the new governor will want them to stick around: cabinet-level positions, such as commissioners and superintendents, are generally subject to state Senate confirmation. With the current state legislative session scheduled to end in June 2008, and the Senate in Republican hands, it would make little sense for Governor Paterson to make changes in these posts at this time.
Every member of the state Legislature must stand for re-election in November 2008. The Democrats have a huge majority in the state Assembly, holding more than 100 of the 150 seats in that chamber. The GOP has a narrow 32-30 edge in the state Senate, largely because two Republican state Senators who were elected to two-year terms in November 2006 resigned in the meantime to take other jobs. Democrats won both of the special elections to replace the GOP incumbents, one in Nassau and the other upstate. As such, the Republican state Senate majority today should really be 34-28.
The new governor does not have to face the voters until 2010, and a Democrat-controlled state Assembly is a fact of life so the focus in the fall will be on the state Senate. Yet, before we get too far down the road, you can rest assured numerous twists and turns await.
